Welcome to CalifOregonia

The February 26 Oregonian reported that a floodgate on Interstate I-5 has opened, with the largest percentage of California emigrants in a decade pouring into Oregon–and the influx is just getting started. I believe it…about 1/2 of my current active homebuyers are moving from California.

It wasn’t all that long ago that Oregon’s most outspoken governor Tom McCall was stating on national TV,

“We want you to visit our State of Excitement often. Come again and again. But for heaven’s sake, don’t move here to live. Or if you do have to move in to live, don’t tell any of your neighbors where you are going.”

(Which didn’t scare off my family from making the move north in 1972.)

According to the article, 27,000 Californians applied for Oregon driver’s licenses last year. Cities like Bend, Ashland, Medford, and the southern coast (think Bandon) have been popular final destinations for California residents. The state’s improving economy and real estate value are major drivers.

Baby-boomer Californians are cashing out of their residences and finding Oregon lifestyle and real estate prices to their liking. And with average home prices at $500,000 in LA and $700,000 in San Francisco, first-time buyers have a tough time with California’s prices, and find Oregon appealing, too.

By 2025, the state is expecting to absorb 1 million additional residents. To what impact? The article suggests migration to Oregon will result in increased pressure to expand urban growth boundaries, higher construction fees, and higher housing prices. Simple supply and demand dynamics.

The article states, “Newcomers change Oregon’s landscape, literally and figuratively.”

“But for all of Oregon’s growth, residents’ personal values have stayed remarkably consistent, a new Portland-area survey shows. Pollster Adam Davis says newcomers seek out Oregon ideals. He dubs it the “my kind of people” effect.”

Maybe that’s why I haven’t seen the “Don’t Californicate Oregon” bumper stickers come out of retirement.

Full article here.

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4 comments February 27th, 2006

Tools for Real Estate Voyeurs

There’s no question that the Internet (thank you Al Gore!) has made our world very small indeed. And now with new online tools, you can even look down into your neighbor’s backyard from the sky, or get estimates of property values of your friends or enemies—all with a few mouse clicks.

These new applications are making home buyers (and sellers) more informed than ever about real estate, although they don’t always paint a complete picture (more on this in another article).

Nevertheless, here are a few resources to whet your voyeuristic, er, real estate research appetites:

Portland Maps (www.portlandmaps.com) – The portal for all City of Portland property information (plus some suburban neighborhoods). The city has done its residents (and real estate agents) a huge favor by publishing a wealth of information stored in the city’s databases and records. Type in a street address and you have access to maps, information about the specific property, schools, crime stats, tax information, zoning, permits pulled, nearby bus stops and light rail routes, etc.

MetroMap (http://www.metro-region.org) - The regional metropolitan planning and policy organization has a mapping application that shows zoning information, tax lots, flood plains, school, fire, and police districts, and also includes aerial photography overlays.

Google Maps (maps.google.com) – A great mix of mapping and satellite imaging, particularly in metro areas. Search by address, zoom in and out of the map to see greater detail or context to neighboring communities, then click on the Hybrid setting to see aerial photography. For an even more detailed experience, download the Google Earth application for your PC and fly around the visiting address by address. Now also for Mac users.

Microsoft Local Live (local.live.com) – Similar to Google Maps, Microsoft’s version adds a few extra twists, like the ability to use ‘pushpins’ to mark locations or landmarks. It also features high-resolution, ‘birds eye’ 3-D views of areas of cities like New York, San Francisco, etc.

Zillow (www.zillow.com) – Not the first home valuation site, but this newly launched resource features free property valuation estimates, mashed up with maps and aerial views. Well-funded and launched with a lot of fanfare, Zillow has an elegant user interface, but has had very mixed reviews with respect to its accuracy. Tread carefully with this information, and consult your real estate agent for a market valuation that takes into account variables like home condition, upgrades, etc. Computer algorithms just don’t do subjective evaluations very well.

HousingMaps (www.housingmaps.com) - A project unaffiliated with the Craigslist.org company, this application scours both the ‘for rent’ and the ‘for sale’ property lists found on various Craigslist city bulletin boards, then maps them using Google Maps. A great resource for finding unlisted properties. This project was among the first to leverage the Google’s programming interface to merge data with slick online maps and satellite imaging (now called ‘mash-ups’). Again, many properties for sale by owner or by real estate agent on Craigslist can be negotiated with buyer’s agent representation. You can always contact me for help.

2 comments February 24th, 2006

Average and Median Sale Prices for January

January 2006 sale prices were released and Portland’s strong appreciation trend continues, albeit during a slow winter home sales season.

Across the metro area, average ($297,700) and median* ($245,800) prices are up nearly 17% over a year ago. Average days on market were up to 44.

Here are January’s average and median prices (sorted by median prices).

*The median is the middlemost value in a range, and in this case, it denotes the price where half of the homes sold for less than $245,800, and half sold for more. Average, on the other hand, is the total sales dollars divided by the total number of sales.

Source: RMLS, February 2006.

Add comment February 17th, 2006

12-Month Portland Metro Appreciation

January 2006 results are out and the double-digit appreciation train rolls right along in Portland.

However, in line with national trends and predictions, the market has slowed in comparison to a year ago. Market activity showed fewer pending and closed sales, although new listings were up marginally. The available inventory (active listings divided by closed sales) was up to 3.2 months.

Here are the 12-month appreciation rates* for January 2005 through January 2006.

*Note: Appreciation percentages are based on a comparison of average price from the last 12 months (02/01/05 - 01/31/06) with 12 months before (02/01/04 - 01/31/05).

1 comment February 15th, 2006

Top 10 Portland Home Builders for 2005

The top 10 Portland-area home builders accounted for nearly $1 billion in new real estate value in 2005.

One encouraging sign in my estimation is that local builders have kept big national builders at bay in the Portland metro area. DR Horton and Centex were the only national heavyweights to crack Portland’s top 10 in 2005.

Statistics provided by Construction Monitor via Principal Broker magazine.

Add comment February 3rd, 2006

Is Portland Good for Small Business?

In previous posts, I’ve noted that Portland’s real estate market has thrived despite slower-than-national-average job growth. The city is home to fewer and fewer headquarter companies each year, and over the years has suffered from an anti-business reputation among large employers. However, Portland has had a track record of being a little friendlier to the small business community.

In a recent study by the American City Business Journals, Portland ranked 17th in a list of 50 metropolitan areas with populations of 1 million or more. Top five included Miami, Las Vegas, Orlando, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Seattle.

The formula is weighted heavily by the ratio of small businesses to population, as well as one and three-year changes in that ratio and overall growth of small businesses. Other factors in the 12-point formula included employment growth and average wages. The data comes from 2003 Census Bureau stats.

Here are the top 25 Small Business Friendly cities, according to the American City Business Journals:

1. Miami-Fort Lauderdale
2. Las Vegas
3. Orlando
4. Minneapolis-St. Paul
5. Seattle
6. Denver
7. Providence
8. San Diego
9. Jacksonville
10. New York City
11. Charlotte
12. Washington DC
13. Salt Lake City
14. Richmond
15. Tampa-St. Petersburg
16. Atlanta
17. Portland
18. Los Angeles
19. Baltimore
20. Boston
21. Sacramento
22. St. Louis
23. Austin
24. Philadelphia
25. Riverside-San Bernadino

In an unrelated story, the Portland Development Commission recently announced that it has set aside $750,000 to spur small business growth. The fund will be used for small business working capital loans, ranging from $1,000 to $50,000. It is the third such program created during Mayor Tom Potter’s term.

The loans will feature less-stringent terms than typical bank loans, and will be targeted for use in any area Portland that qualifies as low income.

From the Oregonian -

Ethan Dunham, chairman of the city’s Small Business Advisory Council, says the small-business loans are the right way to boost the economy in struggling parts of the city. “To take that program and go after small business is terrific,” he said. “Everyone knows job creation is in small business.”

The city hasn’t solved its big-business image issues (read: tax incentives), but as for encouraging the success of small business, perhaps some of these efforts will raise Portland’s overall ranking in the next survey.

Add comment February 1st, 2006