Dead Clowns, Subprime Loans and Ben Stein, oh my!

A Friday video send-off for the Labor Day weekend is in order. Have a great one!

First, Ben Stein tells everyone concerned about the stock market to take a chill pill. Whether you agree with his economic analysis or not, he certainly is reassuring. Bueller?……Bueller?

Link to CBS News video. (Will open in a separate browser window and begin after a brief commercial).

Then, Larry Willmore and Jon Stewart investigate the subprime loan fiasco and put forth their conspiracy theory.

[UPDATE: This video expired on September 2, sorry!]

Finally, haven’t we all entered a home that felt as though something wasn’t quite right? Sure, but one with an aura of malevolent energy and a pervasive sense of foreboding?

I have…..but never one haunted by a clown . . .

Technorati Tags: real estate, video, Comedy Central, Jon Stewart, Ben Stein, CBS, homes, economy

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2 comments August 31st, 2007

Guest Post - Organic Home Staging

To stage is all the rage.

Slower home sales are challenging agents to become more creative in preparing their clients’ homes for high-impact first impressions.

Today’s post comes from Ruth Chancellor, a home stager located here in Portland. She suggests that a trip to the local craft store for a few decorating knick-knacks is not the way to go.

Organic Home Staging

Really? Really.

Recently, home staging has garnered a lot of attention and is being credited for selling homes faster and at top dollar. In short, home staging is the art of using marketing and decorating techniques to showcase homes both vacant and occupied.

But in a city known for scenic beauty and environmentally conscious citizens, fake ivy and silk flowers won’t help sell a house.
Effective home staging builds connection points, creating a vision of home that buyers want. While a silk plant might make the dining room appear a little less bare it won’t evoke that emotional connection that attracts attention. As perspective buyers tour a house, they imagine the lifestyle they would live in that home.

Organic materials bring a sense of well-being, both consciously and subconsciously. Potted herbs, bamboo, and fresh flowers add a feeling of luxury that buyers aspire to. With a trip to the farmers market, a few props and some creativity, any kitchen can feel gourmet. An average bathroom can have a serene spa-like feeling with artfully arranged sea shells, polished polish rocks and coral.

And while occupied homes can easily be staged with live plants or fresh flowers, organic materials can easily be incorporated in the staging of a vacant home. An empty home feels anything but homey. A few furnishings and some nature-inspired accessories add warmth to an otherwise cold environment.

In the current market, the decision facing Realtors and home sellers is not “if” but “how” the home should be staged.

Contact Ruth at:
Ruth Chancellor
Chancellor Designs
(503) 807-8167

Footnote: Staging Under Fire

On a related note, a Realtor organization that exclusively advises home buyers suggests that home staging is ‘distracting’, uses ‘trickery, and misleads buyers to overpay for homes that are nicely presented.

I don’t think I’ve read anything more absurd in a long time. Heaven forbid you present your home as a nice place to live!

For further details, read the Realty Times commentary on the NAEBA ‘advisory’. Craig Schiller, interior designer and staging expert, also weighs in on the subject.

Technorati Tags: real estate, staging, organic, marketing, selling, homes, houses, NAEBA, Realty Times

1 comment August 30th, 2007

Downtown Portland Condo Report - August 2007

While I get many requests to update the Portland metro area condo market activity, my hunch is that most readers are looking most specifically at the downtown core market. With the huge investments in the Pearl District, South Waterfront, and even in established downtown areas (NW, Park Blocks, etc.), it’s no wonder. Without further ado, here’s a peek.

Confining the search to the area shown above, 676 active condos were listed in Portland multiple listing service as of August 29. The average condo in downtown Portland will run you $558,000 and give you 1,168 sq. ft. of living space. Figure on spending on average about $478 per square foot.

Here’s a breakdown of active condo listings, by bedrooms:

Active Listings

The sale price versus original list price came out to less than a 1% difference since most units were new construction.

The high-end inventory (>$1 million) is robust, with 64 units averaging $1,579,000 list price and 2,335 sq. ft. in size. This equates to a whopping $676 per square foot and $101 million in available inventory.

So, what is selling? Well, the average condo sale in the past 3 months was $389,208 with 954 sq. ft. — clearly a run on smaller units with nearly $87 million in closed sales on 1-bedroom units alone in the last three months.

Sold Listings (3 months)

I had high hopes when checking on PENDING sales because 427 properties are idling in escrow. However, most of the pending sales were for units to be released upon completion in projects like the Civic, Casey, Cambridge, and Atwater.

Today’s most expensive condo in downtown Portland? A 3-bedroom, 3,100 sq. ft. penthouse unit on the 27th floor of the new Benson Tower, featuring a 360-degree view of the city, listed at $3.5 million. [I can arrange a showing for anyone pre-qualified ] Please note, the HOA fees are $1,200 per month.

So, it appears that the Portland downtown condo market is moving units reasonably well, considering the housing tempest blowing in the national media. The effects of tightened credit and mortgage meltdowns won’t be seen for awhile in this segment. Developers, I’m certain, are hopeful that the market can absorb these lingering high-profile project units–plus some new conversions that have come available–before the next wave of construction commences. The risky segment would appear to be in the larger, 2-bedroom units that are commanding a nearly $800,000 investment.

Like sellers of single-family homes in the Portland area, condo owners will need to factor longer sale times (or think ‘rental’) for their units while existing inventory sells off (at 140 units per month). I suspect speculative investors are sitting back for now.

If you have questions about specific projects, neighborhoods, units, or otherwise, leave a comment below or drop me an email. to ron “at” ronares.com.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, downtown, condo, condominiums, housing, development, Pearl District, South Waterfront, market, activity, real estate

Source: RMLS, August 29, 2007. Data includes condos only, no townhomes or rowhouses. Note, some inventory may not show here if it’s being sold by owner or through the developer’s sales organization.

3 comments August 29th, 2007

Portland Condo Market Update - August 2007

It’s no big surprise that the Portland area condo market has further softened since my last review back in April.

New listings are up, but the average list price is down. The one factor that held relatively steady was the average floorplan size, meaning the average list price per square foot is down about $15/sq. ft. since April.

As of August 25, there were 3,675 active condo/attached home listings throughout the Portland metro area. The average list price is $333,332 for 1,336 square feet ($250 per sq. ft.). In the April snapshot, the area had 2,458 listings at an average 1,361 sq. ft. and list price of $360,522.

Since some readers are more interested in pure condo ownership than rowhouse/townhome construction (which are more typical of suburban neighborhoods), I first rolled up condos and attached homes in the same analysis, then broke them out separately. The tables below show 1) Condos and Attached Homes together; 2) Condos only; and 3) Attached Homes only.

Table 1: Condos & Attached Homes

Table2: Condos only

Table3: Attached Homes only

Please note, this is just a snapshot as of August 25, 2007 of the active listings in the local multiple listing service. It may not include inventory sold by owner or through developer sales groups. Every effort has been taken to ensure accuracy (including use of pivot tables!), but is not guaranteed.

Also, for readers looking specifically at the downtown Portland condo market, check back later this week for a more in-depth analysis of sales and active listings.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, condos, condominiums, townhomes, rowhouses, real estate, averages, listings, prices

2 comments August 27th, 2007

Portland Home Price Averages and Appreciation

Most Portland-area markets were a little flat last month in sale price appreciation. Lake Oswego/West Linn, Milwaukie/Clackamas, West Portland (including downtown), and Tigard/Tualatin/Wilsonville/Sherwood all depreciated in average price from the previous month-end result.

On the other hand, Northeast and Southeast Portland, plus Oregon City and Beaverton are currently showing the best month-over-month average sale price appreciation.

Results below are for year-to-date through July 2007.

Appreciation percentages are based on a comparison of average price from the last 12 months (08/01/06 - 07/31/07) with 12 months before (08/01/05 - 07/31/06).

Source: RMLS, August 2007.

3 comments August 24th, 2007

Portland Real Estate Market Activity - July 2007

Portland’s real estate market is still singing that same ol’ song.

July 2007 results for the local housing market are not surprising, nor particularly shocking. It’s the same refrain of the past few months–longer time on market, increasing available inventory, slower pace of sales….and rising prices.

Here is the chorus:

• Year-to-date, new listings are up 10% and closed sales are down 3.3% over 2006.
• Inventory is up to 5.7 months (vs. 3.5 months last year).
• Through the year, the average sale price in Portland is now $341,900 (vs. $319,200 at this time last year). The 12-month average is $335,100.
• Average appreciation in the Portland area is 8.1% for the past 12 months.
• It’s taking 58 days on average to sell a home in Portland. Last year at this time, it took 42 days.

Unanswered questions in the lyrics:
Are homeowners panicking? (My take: no, but they are eager to sell. I think some will let their listing expire if conditions don’t improve.)

Are homebuyers scooping up bargains? (My take: some are, but sellers continue to be firm on price discounts and repairs, especially if they have made price reductions already.)

Tomorrow, the area’s average sales prices and annual appreciation figures.

Source: RMLS, August 2007.
Photo by redgum, used under Creative Commons license.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, real estate, homes, housing, median, average, prices, sales, inventory, listings, appreciation

Add comment August 23rd, 2007

Vacation Bliss

A short apology for the light posting at re:PDX lately.

While the real estate world goes to Hades in a hand basket with news about lenders, rates, housing forecasts, affordability, et al., I’m over in sunny Central Oregon, keeping my head out of the news (for the most part).

Next week: updated Portland market statistics (not great) and in particular, a condo analysis.

Technorati Tags: vacation, condos, Portland, Oregon, real estate, statistics, mortgage

2 comments August 16th, 2007

Portland Home Construction in the Rear-View Mirror

The past couple years have ushered in a wealth of consumer-friendly, real estate-related websites, with perhaps Zillow being the best known example. One of my favorites is Trulia’s home search site, and their new Hindsight application.

In short, Hindsight plots a sampling of an area’s home construction dates on top of a Microsoft Virtual Earth map. A timeline automatically starts scrolling from around the turn of the 20th century and as homes were built over time, they ‘bloom’ on the map.

Here is a view of the Portland timeline:

My little screen image shown above doesn’t do it justice. Click on the image or here to see it in its full glory.

It seems to jibe with my understanding of the age of Portland architecture and community development. The central city, primarily north and east along the riverbank is first, with post-WW2 construction commencing in East County and Beaverton, reaching out to Gresham and Aloha/Hillsboro in the ’70’s, and followed in roughly concentric circles out to the suburbs (West Linn, Tigard, Sherwood, Clackamas). The best way to view this is to stare at the middle of the screen and let your peripheral vision absorb the data as the timeline scrolls. You can zoom in for even more detail.

How helpful is this? If you’re not from Portland or familiar with the area, you can pause, then slowly advance the scrollbar on the timeline to see where the homes of vintage construction have been built. If you want to know for example, where the historic homes of West Linn are built, this tool could easily give you some clues.

If nothing else, it’s fun….this coming from a real estate/mapping junkie

Link to Trulia Hindsight.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, Trulia, Hindsight, web 2.0, maps, homes, construction, architecture

2 comments August 6th, 2007

Homeowner Tip - Ladder Safety

You’ve probably seen those helpful homeowner tips from your local Realtor in their newsletter. You know what I’m talking about…how to clean mildew from grout, when to force amaryllis bulbs, how to sharpen your edger blade, etc.

Well, here’s my public service tip:

• If your satellite dish appears to be losing signal strength, and;
• If you decide to clamber onto your roof in a misguided, el cheapo DIY effort to deduce said satellite signal problem, and;
• If you are not good with heights to begin with, and;
• If you neglected to let anyone know that you’ve gone up on the roof, and;
• If you realize that there is no way in Hades you’re getting off that roof without either: 1) a broken fibula, or 2) timely help from a random passer-by;

Then, be sure to carry your cell phone in your pocket. Speed-dialed with your neighbors’ phone numbers.

Otherwise, you run the risk of turning an already humiliating predicament into a highly public one–culminating in pathetic rooftop mews for help, perhaps even a visit from the local fire station. The same advice goes for gutter cleaning, antenna adjusting, skylight scrubbing, etc.

You’ll thank me later.

And don’t ask me how I know these things.

Technorati Tags: Realtor, advice, satellite, DISH, repair, signal, stupid

Add comment August 3rd, 2007

Northwest Still Leads U.S. Housing Market, but….

A couple studies released this week show the Northwest as the strongest housing market nationally, but still affected by national trends.

The first study, Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite home-price index, tracks 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, and nationwide, the May results revealed a 2.8 percent decline in the annual home-price growth rate. Seattle weighed in at number one with 9% price growth; Portland took third spot with 5.7%.

Fifteen of the metro areas in the 20-city index had year-over-year price declines in May. The worst damage was done in Detroit (-11.1 percent). Charlotte, NC appeared in the top three with Portland and Seattle, with 7 percent price growth.

From the chief economist conducting the study, Robert Shiller:

“At a national level, declines in annual home-price returns are showing no signs of a slowdown or turnaround. Year-over-year price returns are continuing to either move deeper into negative territory or experience persistent diminishing returns.”

Additionally:

“If there is any positive news in these numbers, it may be that in both May and April, eight of the 20 markets showed positive monthly growth rates. This compares to only one or two of the 20 in the late winter and early spring. We need a few more months of data, however, to determine if this is the beginning of a national turnaround, since the national trend is still at a sharp deceleration.”

Here are the Case/Shiller results:

However, in an unrelated study, Portland shows signs of lagging prices. Bank of America Securities released their monthly agent survey (in which I often participate), showing that Portland’s buyer traffic was below expectations. Pricing cuts and incentives were more prevalent, and increased time on the market foreshadows future pricing challenges.

Comments from the survey:

“The entry-level market is being hurt most by tighter lending.”
“People have lost all sense of urgency.”

I concur.

Technorati Tags: housing, Portland, Oregon, national, Case, Shiller, Standard, Poor, price, appreciation, homes, sales, forecast, BofA

1 comment August 2nd, 2007