Portland Real Estate Prices and Appreciation - September 2007
October 18th, 2007
As noted yesterday, the Portland metro real estate market is seeing the highest inventory levels since 2001. But the impact on pricing has been gradual, making the Portland market a rare standout nationally for appreciation.
Continued declines should be expected, but for now, using a 12-month average and median compilation of home sales and comparing it with the previous 12 months, the market is showing a 6.9% average and 7.5% median growth in appreciation.
Gresham, Hillsboro, Southeast and North Portland are still showing decent appreciation gains when compared to the previous year (in the 8.8% to 9.8% range).
However, I am watching the cumulative year-to-date sale prices decline month-to-month in Lake Oswego / West Linn, West Portland (including downtown), and the south metro suburbs of Tigard, Sherwood, Tualatin, and Wilsonville.
Below are average and median sale prices year-to-date, along with 12-month sale price appreciation by market area:
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $557,300 | $465,000 | 3.7% |
| West Portland | $461,800 | $379,000 | 2.8% |
| NW Washington County | $417,500 | $385,000 | 1.8% |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $377,100 | $340,000 | 4.6% |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $338,900 | $300,000 | 1.6% |
| Oregon City / Canby | $330,400 | $303,700 | 5.1% |
| Northeast Portland | $322,500 | $283,000 | 6.7% |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $298,900 | $271,000 | 9.5% |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $290,500 | $262,500 | 3.6% |
| Southeast Portland | $287,200 | $250,000 | 9.8% |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $282,000 | $260,000 | 9.7% |
| Yamhill County | $280,900 | $250,000 | 8.4% |
| North Portland | $267,100 | $252,100 | 8.8% |
| Columbia County | $256,200 | $241,000 | 13.8% |
Appreciation percentages are based on a comparison of average price from the last 12 months (10/01/06 - 09/30/07) with 12 months before (10/01/05 - 09/30/06). Source: RMLS, October 2007.
Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, real estate, home, prices, housing, average, median, sale, appreciation
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Related posts:
- Portland Real Estate Prices and Appreciation - August 2007
- Portland Oregon Real Estate Prices and Appreciation - June 2007
- 12-Month Portland Appreciation - September 2005 vs. September 2004
Entry Filed under: Market Activity
7 Comments Add your own
1. Uncle Git | October 18th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
If you look at the numbers purely YOY you’ll see we are in fact down over least year - this bears out what I’m seeing on the street.
http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=Portland&pct=50&g=m
The 12 month average method is masking the true numbers and size of the decline. You only have to look at Southern California and Florida to see what’s coming down the pipe here.
2. James | October 18th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
And what Uncle Git doesn’t get is that many reported sale prices are gross numbers; i.e., the figure doesn’t include seller paid closing costs or other giveaways. One recent sale was reported $10,000 more than the actual net sales price. Talk about skewed nuimbers!
3. uncle_git | October 19th, 2007 at 2:42 pm
“And what Uncle Git doesn’t get is that many reported sale prices are gross numbers; i.e., the figure doesn’t include seller paid closing costs or other giveaways. One recent sale was reported $10,000 more than the actual net sales price. Talk about skewed nuimbers!”
Oh I get that very much - look for example at the “Free upgrades” builders are throwing in now $40-50k is now common.
This party is over - people here are still just praying it isn’t so.
Time for the hangover.
4. Thesa Chambers | Broker | Sunriver Realty | October 20th, 2007 at 10:10 am
Ron - I have been preaching similar for La Pine, Three Rivers South - and although our sales are down…. prices are not suffering from it… yes Days on Market are up and inventory is at an all time high… but things are selling.
When I read what others report from across the country - I am thankful we are down but not declining.
5. Jon | October 23rd, 2007 at 8:13 am
Thanks for sharing this Ron. I do wish someone would explain why Portland is apparently immune to the forces of supply and demand, as it relates to home prices. My wife and I are approaching the 2nd anniversary of our home search, and many of the properties that we looked at 2 summers ago are still on the market, with no significant change in price. These listings are in the $750-900k range. The only change in price we have seen is the occasional token $5k drop in price, which the owners/listing agents seem to think is generous.
Until prices drop, we are on the sidelines.
Jon
6. Ron Ares | October 23rd, 2007 at 1:44 pm
Jon,
As other commenters here have projected, wholesale price decreases have only begun to occur.
Although I will stop short of the Armageddon that Uncle Git predicts, we will see deeper cuts for the next few months. But if you’re not seeing price reductions in the neighborhoods you’re watching, then the owners don’t have to move, or they know that someone (from out of town) will eventually buy it.
The worst hit will be the homogeneous tract neighborhoods in the suburbs, where differentiation is tough and supply is plentiful.
7. uncle_git | October 25th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
It’s interesting that giving back just half of the last 3 or 4 years worth of gains (driven primarily by changes in the credit market that are now shown to be unworkable and in reverse) is seen as “Armageddon”.
If you look at the numbers since 2000 - we could have a 30% drop in prices and still be WELL above historical appreciation.
We blindly accept 20% a year inflation years on end - but a giving back half the gains in the crash is “unthinkable”.
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