Sneak Peek at March 2008 Results
April 9th, 2008
The March numbers are still trickling in, but stable enough to draw some early conclusions as to the state of the Portland metro real estate market.
Sales
Compared to March 2007, residential sales are down 39%, continuing the 2008 trend of being 30-40% off last year’s monthly pace.
Average / Median Price
Despite the slow sales performance, pricing is up (!) ever-so-slightly up from March 2007. Average price was $337,200 vs. $336,300 (March 2007). The median is up $1,000 from March 2007 ($287,000 vs. $286,000). Note, however, that the average sale price in March is down about 2% from February’s result.
Pending Sales
Perhaps the bright spot, pending sales (homes under contract) are roughly equal to this time last year (within 100 units) at 2,960 pending. AMENDED: Like sold inventory, pending sales are actually down about 40% from March 2007–RMLS contacted me regarding a difference in reporting methodology.
Inventory
Around 15,700 homes are now being offered, somewhere around 9.5 months at the current pace of sales. March 2007 showed just 10,577 homes.
Market area data available next week.
Photo courtesy of draggin, used under Creative Commons license.
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Related posts:
- Portland Real Estate Activity - March 2008
- April Showers Bring…More Showers
- Portland Real Estate Market Activity - April 2008
Entry Filed under: Market Activity
8 Comments Add your own
1. Rhonda Porter | April 9th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
OMG what a flash back…I had a “Little Professor” calculator and loved it…perhaps that was the tool that caused me to enter the mortgage profession.
2. Laurel | April 9th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
What is preferable, seeing sales drop way off and preserving the sale price, or selling more properties at a lower price? Maybe sales have stalled because sellers are not understanding that they will have to lower their prices to move property.
It’s cold comfort that the average price is slightly up. All it means is that some high end places may have moved.
3. Ron Ares | April 9th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
@Rhonda - Who knew? The Little Professor was a gateway drug to the mortgage profession!
4. Ron Ares | April 9th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
@Laurel - I would prefer to see inventory clear and sellers get realistic about prices. We need to take our medicine for awhile. I wasn’t comforted at the flat year-over-year result–it actually declined from February.
5. Steve | April 9th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
The decreased sales coupled with stable prices suggest that sellers are holding out for last year’s prices while buyers are trying to price in future drops. That’s means a thinning market until either buyers are willing to pay more–unlikely given the torrent of “bad housing market” news–or sellers lower their prices (the apparent modest trend).
Separately, three cheers to Ron for such an informative, intelligent, and frank site (compare with NAR cant) .
6. Ron Ares | April 9th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
@Steve - I agree with your analysis. I suggested in an upcoming Oregonian interview (Thursday 4/10?) that sellers take their peak market price (as of July 2007) and subtract 5% if they need to sell quickly.
I appreciate the compliment, too.
7. Uncle_Git | April 10th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Ron - I’d be curious what the new methodology entailed regarding the pending sales - surely something like that is pretty cut and dried ?
This is pretty much exactly what the state of play was in So Cal last spring - sellers listing at wishing prices and buyers staring going “Nuh uh - price falls coming”
I know you don’t agree with my take on us following SoCal trends - but you gotta admit there are some startling similarities in the way the cycle has progressed in both markets.
8. Ron Ares | April 17th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
UG,
Long time, no answer….sorry. I had to go to a pub and carve out some time to reply to comments…
There is no methodology change to how RMLS calculates pending sales…I just misunderstood it. They track sales that go pending in the month. I was counting all pending sales. Some of them apparently have lonnnnng closing times.
The SoCal/PDX curve trajectory looks similar…but in 6 months I don’t expect to see streets covered in FOR SALE signs and abandoned homes with squatters. Definitive recession and unemployment could change that, but that’s a different dynamic altogether.
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