Archive for September, 2008
Bear with me as I diverge from real estate commentary, but I got to embrace my inner nerd this weekend.
Saturday, I had the privilege of attending one of the many creative and technical events that Portland is becoming famous for holding — this being WordCamp Portland conference, celebrating the Wordpress publishing system.
So, what’s a REEL-TOR doing at a quintessentially Portland chic geek event?
Well, rePDX and many blogs and websites are run using this open-source software system. Without getting into technical details, sites like this would be difficult to manage, update, and host — particularly for non-designer or developer types. I went to get better grasp of what Wordpress could do to extend some of the ideas I have, and how I could do what I do here, better.
About 150 bloggers, software designers and web developers, spent the day listening to speakers, getting Wordpress 2.7 previews, and networking. A couple other real estate brokers attended, Mike Rohrig and Dale Chumbley, so as a percentage of attendees, the real estate industry was well represented. Early in the day, we stopped for a group photo:
Then, after flashing ‘W’ symbols with our fingers (for Wordpress) for the camera, someone had the brilliant idea to walk us into the middle of Grand Avenue for another photo op. I feared the police were about to descend and shower us with rubber bullets and tear gas, mistaking us for Bush protestors.
The Portland tech and creative crowd is vibrant, diverse, accessible, and super-smart. For many hours, the Wordcamp PDX topic was the highest trending topic on the Twitter social network (follow me at rares_pdx). I hope this fervor translates into viable future business ventures and rewards these talented folks for their ground-breaking efforts.
My thanks to organizers, speakers, sponsors, and the local Wordpress community for a great event and really helpful ideas.
Ok, enough nerd-talk for today. Back to our regularly scheduled programming…
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September 29th, 2008
An old Washington Mutual commercial. I’m sure it was funny in 2005…but I bet WaMu shareholders aren’t laughing today.
Link to WaMu Mortgage Commercial
Hat tip: Mike Mueller
September 26th, 2008
So, how long, really, does it take to sell a house in the Portland area? The answer: 121 days, according to the new Total Market Time measure* released this month.
Long market times and high inventories are impacting sale prices, now in greater measure as the seasonal market winds down.
Final results for August 2008 reveal an acceleration of dipping prices, both average and median. Compared to last month, prices are down 2.7% and 2.8%, but when measuring against 12 months ago (the peak of the market), prices are off 6.7% (average) and 7.3% (median). The median price has now reset to levels found back in February 2007.
| Median Sale Price |
$280,000 |
$288,200 |
$302,000 |
| Average Sale Price |
$331,300 |
$340,500 |
$355,000 |
| Closed Sales |
1,770 |
1,831 |
2,554 |
| Pending Sales |
1,908 |
2,003 |
2,447 |
| New Listings |
4,398 |
5,237 |
6,031 |
| Active Listings |
17,556 |
18,219 |
15,782 |
| Total Market Time |
121 days |
72 days* |
56 days* |
| Inventory (in months) |
9.9 |
10.0 |
6.2 |
Here’s how Portland’s various market areas break down, year-to-date:
| Lake Oswego / West Linn |
$560,000 |
$455,000 |
5.4% |
138 |
| West Portland |
$486,400 |
$400,000 |
6.5% |
142 |
| NW Washington County |
$403,800 |
$375,000 |
-0.2% |
121 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville |
$357,900 |
$325,000 |
-3.9% |
128 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas |
$327,700 |
$290,000 |
-6.5% |
140 |
| Northeast Portland |
$325,500 |
$283,500 |
2.9% |
92 |
| Oregon City / Canby |
$322,800 |
$286,000 |
-2.5% |
155 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove |
$285,300 |
$260,000 |
-2.6% |
139 |
| Southeast Portland |
$282,100 |
$249,900 |
-1.3% |
101 |
| Yamhill County |
$278,000 |
$227,500 |
1.1% |
125 |
| Beaverton / Aloha |
$277,100 |
$252,000 |
-2.6% |
111 |
| North Portland |
$270,400 |
$253,000 |
3.8% |
74 |
| Gresham / Troutdale |
$263,800 |
$247,500 |
-3.4% |
126 |
| Columbia County |
$229,500 |
$214,900 |
-3.7% |
126 |
Source: RMLS, September 2008.
* Total Market Time - the number of days from when a property is listed to when an offer is accepted on that same property. If a property is re-listed within 31 days, Total Market Time continues to accrue; however, it does not include the time it was off the market. The old Average Market Time measured the days a listing number was active–not taking into account re-listings.
September 15th, 2008
When the RMLS Market Action arrives next week, more-than-casual market observers may raise an eyebrow at the ‘average market time’ statistic for Portland-area real estate, ‘cuz it’s gonna be higher than usual.
If you recall, in July the average time to sell a home in the Portland metro was reported to be 72 days — a little over 2 3 months. This statistic was derived by counting the total days from the listing date to the date when an offer was accepted (the pending date). Sounds simple, right?
Well, the reality is that properties can be listed, then relisted by the same agent, then expire, then get listed with a new agent, and repeat this process multiple times. Therefore, a property originally intended for sale in January 2007 may not sell until July 2008, with multiple new listing times….and a market time of 37 days, according to the old measure.
Frankly, it’s been a misleading statistic. (So much so, that I had planned on not reporting it at re:PDX anymore.)
Our MLS has long had a Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM) measure, which accounted for relistings and changes of brokers, etc., but for some reason did not become the standard measure for the real time on market. On my other micro real estate blogs, PropertyBlotter and move2westlinn, my co-authors and I began publishing the CDOM stats for all properties sold each week. Very eye-opening stuff.
So, for the August 2008 results, the RMLS board has decided to adopt a ‘Total Market Time’ metric and provide a more accurate picture to consumers. Here’s how it’s measured:
Total Market Time is an average of the cumulative number of days from when a property is listed to when an offer is accepted. If a property is taken off-market and re-listed within 31 days, Total Market Time continues to accrue; however, it does not include the time that it was off the market.
So, expect the Market Time numbers to jump upon publication of the next report around the 15th. I haven’t determined what measures other MLS boards use to determine market time and whether or not it will change how Portland is viewed vs. other national markets. (Perhaps some out-of-state brokers will comment?)
Any guesses as to what the Total Market Time numbers will be? Leave a comment.
September 11th, 2008
Investors are feeling bullish today as the market rallies in AM after news of the FNMA/FDMC takeover.
Could be a good day to lock rates.
Graph courtesy of Zillow Mortgage Market.
September 8th, 2008
We at the 12-month anniversary of the official peak of Portland’s housing price boom. In August 2007, homes sold for an average of $366,900 and the middlemost sale price (median) hit the $300,000 mark.
One year later, the results are very different. For August 2008, the median price is down 7% from last year’s peak, and the average is off 10%. Closed sales for the month are 32% below that of August 2007, continuing the year-long pattern.
Early Numbers for August 2008 vs. last month and 12 months ago:
| Median Sale Price |
$280,000 |
$288,200 |
$300,000 |
| Average Sale Price |
$332,000 |
$340,500 |
$366,900 |
| Closed Sales |
1,743 |
1,831 |
2,554 |
IF there are hopeful signs for home sellers, it’s that the pace of new listings is down by a third from last year. Between that and a higher number of expired listings, inventory should shrink going into the fall.
On an unrelated note, Forbes thinks Portland is the 4th most likely city to see home price increases over the long-term, behind Albuquerque, Charlotte, and San Antonio. Full story here.
Please note these are ‘unofficial’ results and things can shift a little either way — the RMLS report should be out by September 15.
September 8th, 2008
Off the real estate topic today, but if you’re a viewer or contributor to the ORBlogs.com blog repository, today’s news is a bummer.
Paul Bausch, founder of ORBlogs in 2003, leaves a heartfelt farewell message that the directory has grown beyond the bounds of a hobby, and that blogging has become, surprise, an increasingly commercial (I’m guilty as charged) enterprise.
I want to personally thank Paul for his cat-herding efforts in coordinating the typically independent Oregon collection of 1,672 diverse blogs over the past 5+ years. Much of the traffic to repdx.com, propertyblotter.com, and move2westlinn.com is due to his efforts.
So, you have until the end of the month (maybe a few more days) to parse the directory of Oregon based blogs and bookmark your favorites or subscribe to them in RSS feeds.
Unless, of course, someone else picks up the baton.
Anyone? Anyone?
September 4th, 2008
