Portland Condo Market Update - May 2008

A recent reader prompted me for a condo update for Portland and it’s time to oblige.

Interestingly, the inventory of condos and townhomes has not ballooned with the slower sales market. In fact, since my last update in August 2007, the market contains just a couple hundred additional units. It’s not an insignificant number, but clearly, developers have cooled their jets, even converting some projects to luxury apartments while existing inventory is absorbed.

On the other hand, it’s not likely that all units available are marketed in RMLS. From a developer’s standpoint, there is little value in listing a multitude of identical units — thereby showing a surplus in supply and a weak bargaining position. So, consider this report a high-volume sample, just like the other reports I’ve done.

As of May 12, there were 3,896 active condo/attached home listings throughout the Portland metro area. The average list price is $329,000 for 1,344 square feet. In the August 2007 snapshot, the area had 3,675 listings at an average 1,336 sq. ft. and list price of $333,300.

In the past six months, the average list price is down just 2%–bringing the average price per square foot down to $245.

Like last time, I first rolled up condos and attached homes in the same analysis, then broke them out separately. The tables below show 1) Condos and Attached Homes together; 2) Condos only; and 3) Attached Homes only. All sorted by average list price:

Please note, this is just a snapshot as of May 12, 2008 of the active listings in the local multiple listing service. It may not include inventory sold by owner or through developer sales groups. Every effort has been taken to ensure accuracy, but is not guaranteed.

With a quarter of the active listings located in the City Center, I’ll be back later in the week with and update on downtown sales and active listings.

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Add comment May 14th, 2008

Portland Monthly Real Estate Issue & Neighborhood Reference

It’s May, and I’m a little remiss in mentioning the April 2008 issue of Portland Monthly and their annual real estate issue.

This year, the issue seems a little lighter, but they report on the general market health, identify seven housing trends, rate a few top neighborhoods based on price (low and high), short-term and long-term appreciation, and pace of sales. The article concludes with their Neighborhoods by the Numbers section — measuring real estate factors, school performance, population mix, crime stats, parks, and commute times.

Trends they note:

• Fewer Californian immigrants
• Homes as personal brands
• The attraction of living in the suburbs/exurbs
• Opportunities in a soft condo market
• A growing, aging population in Portland
• Rising rents — 10 to 15%
• Remodeling ‘green’

Last year, they posted the ‘Neighborhoods by the Numbers’ section on their website, but I don’t find it yet this year.

Out of respect for their copyright, I won’t post a copy of the articles here, but since it’s off the newsstand, you can email me and I’ll send it along.

3 comments May 8th, 2008

Just What We Need…Another Local Real Estate Blog

I’ve noted before that the Portland metro area real estate blogosphere has blossomed over the past couple years, adding fresh voices to the chorus of brokers and real estate professionals working throughout PDX and surrounding environs each month.

Well, I am pleased to highlight the launch of (yet) another local real estate blog, The Property Blotter.

PropertyBlotter will focus on the Lake Oswego real estate market, a community that is often targeted by relocation candidates and homeowners looking for a close-in Portland suburb with an abundance of natural beauty, good schools, and strong neighborhoods. (The Property Blotter title is a bit of an inside joke to LO residents–back in the day, the local newspaper’s police blotter used to be the highlight of the week for scandal-seeking neighbors.)

I am delighted to be joined in this venture by a couple Lake Oswego real estate specialists (and residents), Linda Trotta and Dianne Gregoire from our group at Advanced Real Estate Services.

They are champing at the bit to write up advice about navigating the Lake Oswego market, helpful neighborhood profiles, frequent market updates, and more. I’ll be supporting with technical advice, market analysis, and the occasional observation on the site.

Besides re:PDX, this is the third real estate blog I’m involved with…please don’t forget our West Linn site, move2westlinn.com co-authored by Jody McLeod, who also writes the pdxmojo.com blog.

For any real estate-related practitioners reading, we’ll all be at the PDX RE Meetup at the end of March. Come join us.

7 comments March 12th, 2008

Week Links - February 8, 2008

A handful of real estate-related (or not) links affecting the Portland market (or not):

Congress Passes Economic Stimulus Package
The President is expected to sign it quickly. Besides tax rebates, the plan also includes higher conforming (i.e. government-insured) loan rates of up to 125% of the area’s median home price. (Current conforming loans are limited to $417,000.)

It’s unknown how much, if any, impact this will have on the local real estate market. Larry Morris of EquiPoint weighs in with his analysis. Perhaps it will have more impact on California buyers, and therefore, free up some California sellers looking to move to Oregon (a traditional source of local real estate activity).

Wall St. Journal covers Portland Teardown
Did you know a Wall Street Journal contributor is writing an ongoing diary of her effort to tear down and build a new home inside the Portland city limits? (I didn’t.) Here’s the latest entry.

Buena Vista Auction - Part Deux
Some of the leftovers from the 1st Buena Vista auction, plus some buildable lots, are going under the gavel again March 8.

Round House
Very cool house in NY, but I would have liked some coverage about the mechanicals that turn the house, and not a shot of the urinal. (Courtesy of the Zillow Blog.)

And, now for something really different…

Frozen in Time
What happens if over 200 people suddenly and instantly freeze in place in the middle of Grand Central Station?

From the same people that brought you the No Pants Subway Ride of 2008.

Technorati Tags: economy, stimulus, real estate, round, house, Portland, Oregon

Add comment February 8th, 2008

Google Terrain Hints at Topo Features

I admit I am something of a Google Maps fanboy.

Starting with their user-friendly search interface, Google mapmeisters have continued to innovate with features like drag-and-drop multi-stop directions, traffic density views, user-generated maps, and most recently, the Street View. Good stuff for real estate-related information gathering.

Now, they’ve added a new layer–Terrain, which provides topographic information for the map you’re viewing. Just like using the satellite view or traffic views, just type in the address want, then click the “Terrain” button in the upper righthand corner.

It isn’t particularly detailed and you can’t zoom in as far as other views, but it does give a quick peek at whether that listing you’re researching is in a canyon, on top of a ridge, or in the flats.

Close-up of West Hills

For an out-of-town buyer or someone unfamiliar with Portland-area topography, it’s very useful information, especially if the Street View is not available at that location.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, real estate, Google, maps, topography, terrain, search

1 comment November 29th, 2007

Plenty of Room for Millionaires

A re:PDX reader recently asked about how the Portland job environment could support the number of million dollar listings he’s been watching on the market. A great question and one I’ve wondered about, too.

For all of it’s positive reviews, Portland doesn’t exactly top the list of locales for high-paying jobs with Fortune 500 industrial, manufacturing, or headquarters companies. Perhaps there is a steady stream of Intel, Nike, and other corporate executives moving inbound. Perhaps…

My off-the-cuff reply, based almost purely on anecdotal evidence, was that the bulk of migrating buyers have scads of equity made during the recent housing run-up. Along with their yearning for a lifestyle change, they’re bringing along big downpayments. Many that I have come across are from California, which causes me some concern given the state of their housing market.

Are there enough non-Californian candidates to absorb the balance of 633 Portland-metro properties priced at $1 million or more?

That’s right. As of October 28, 633 properties topped the $1 million price level–a whopping $1.1 billion in real property. The last time I peeked, in January 2006, only 275 properties scaled the $1M tag. And that doesn’t include the 215 listings priced from $900K to $1M, or the 302 listings priced from $800K to $900K.

While not particularly useful statistics, the ‘average’ home priced over a million had 4,482 sq. ft, 4 bedrooms, and just over three bedrooms. Average list price for the group: $1,772,000. West Portland (including the city center) and Lake Oswego/West Linn led the area for highest number of $1M+ homes, together with nearly 60% of the total properties in the survey.

West Portland (downtown) includes 75 condos in the count, too. Outlying suburbs like Newberg, NW Washington County, Oregon City/Canby, etc. will typically yield acreage, barns, farmland, horses, etc.

Here’s a breakdown of active listings, sorted by the market areas’ number of properties meeting the $1M+ price level:

The most expensive listing currently on the market is a 20-acre, 9,538 sq. ft. Tuscan-style spread in Newberg/Sherwood for just under $10 million. It features 4 bedrooms(!), 5 and 2-half baths, 5 fireplaces, and an 8-stall horse barn.

And just under $8 million will get you a former Portland TrailBlazer player’s home with almost 7 acres, 14,000 sq. ft., 8 bedroms, 8+ bathrooms, and 366 feet of Willamette River frontage in West Linn.

Anyway, for those of you looking to drop $800,000 to $10,000,000 on a new home, you’ve got over 1,100 to look through. I can be available, even on short notice to drive you through some samples

Data from RMLS, October 28, 2007. Photo of Pittock Mansion by MissMarnie, used under Creative Commons license. The Pittock is not for sale.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, real estate, million, dollar, listings, homes, houses

6 comments October 29th, 2007

Week Links - October 12, 2007

It has been a while since I’ve done a Friday link post. Here are some updates on the local market as reported in other media outlets:

Portland neighborhoods rate as top retirement locales
Money Magazine highlights Goose Hollow and the Pearl District as top spots to retire in the U.S.

The Oregonian piles on the soft condo market
More reporting about lingering inventory and the city’s oversupply of condos.

More Thoughts About the Condo Market
Brian Libby at Portland Architecture comments on the changing condo market and incites thoughtful comments about the Portland housing market

U.S. foreclosure rate down slightly in September, Oregon is mid-pack
RealtyTrac releases results and Oregon is #28 nationally with one in every 1,590 homes in foreclosure. The national average is 1 in 554. The U.S. foreclosure rate was down slightly (6%) from August.

Staying in your house awhile?
Then you might have remodeling on your mind. The Oregon Remodelers Association is putting on its Remodelers Home Tour - October 13 -14. They’ll feature 12 projects on display in Portland and 7 in Salem.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, real estate, links, news, articles, housing, homes, foreclosures, condos, remodeling

Photo by Darwin Bell, used under Creative Commons license.

1 comment October 12th, 2007

Portland ‘burbs get National Notice

As I’ve noted over the past couple years (here, here, and here for example), Portland gets its share of plaudits from national writers and reviewers for land use, housing prices, and other livability factors.

Lately though, Portland’s suburbs have been getting some pub.

Recently, Money magagzine rated Sherwood as the #18 in their Top 100 most desirable places to live in the country.

About Sherwood, Money reporters said:

Like much of the Northwest, Sherwood is home to an array of beautiful parks and natural beauty. But the quickly growing commercial sites of Sherwood offer true insight into the town’s character: a juxtaposition of old and new, with reverence toward both the city’s historic past and its bright, expanding future. The community events calendar is always full and the town’s location makes for a fairly easy commute to nearby Portland

Lake Oswego, perhaps Portland’s toniest suburb, gets a mention at #32.

One of the major attractions of this Portland suburb is the 405-acre artificial lake whose banks it sits on. Waterfront properties are highly sought, and many residents take advantage of the lake, either by boating on the weekends or hanging out at one of the parks on its shores. Another big appeal is shopping and dining. Lake Oswego is full of many one-of-a-kind boutiques and unique restaurants. And for arts lovers, the Lakewood Center offers top-notch instruction at its dance studio along with fantastic shows put on by its theater company.

(By the way, the word ‘artificial’ conjures up images of sterile concrete, which is far from reality.)

And today, U.S News and World Report claims Hillsboro as one of the top 10 locales in the U.S. to retire.

About Hillsboro, the U.S. News editors said:

….folks are passionate about preventing urban sprawl and safeguarding its unique mix of suburban convenience and natural beauty. The preservation of agricultural lands (like vineyards) has been a hot topic, and the city promotes its Orenco Station housing development, a concept designed to build community but also discourage the carcentric (and environmentally unfriendly) lifestyle.

A retiree, however, should not live on drink, golf, and public policy alone. Hillsboro offers the usual cultural suspects: farmers’ markets, arts center, library, theaters, and the like, yet for those needing a romp through the urban jungle, its access to the light rail system makes for an easy trip into the heart of Portland. And an hour’s drive west takes you straight to the Oregon coast.

To be honest, I had never thought of Hillsboro as a retirement Mecca, but then again, I spent 15 years of my life preparing for (eventual) retirement by working in Hillsboro’s burgeoning technology cubicle farms. Golf and wine tasting were not high on the daily work agenda.

Perhaps in contrast to most major metropolitan areas, Portland’s suburbs are typically within 30 minutes of downtown PDX, yet have their own identity, events, arts scene, Farmer’s markets, and more. Not a bad way to go if you’re not urban-oriented, but like the proximity to the Big City for occasional outings.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Sherwood, Hillsboro, Oregon, towns, city, rankings, retirement, retire, livability, Money Magazine, U.S. News and World Report, relocation, homes, houses

Add comment September 26th, 2007

Are we prepping for a buying binge?

Lost in the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the national media over foreclosures, mortgage liquidity woes, and slow housing starts is the fact that mortgage rates are low, low, low and Portland’s listing inventories are high, high, high (not sky-high, though).

A recipe for a buyers’ perfect storm? A run on housing inventory? Wellllll, maybe not. But conditions are certainly upbeat in Portland despite mortgage meltdowns and the national real estate picture as a whole.

Buyers with a long-term outlook should be encouraged at the prospects of locking in at wicked-low rates (~6.0% as of today!) and having a wealth of properties to sift through. Sellers, on the other hand, still hearing of the metro area’s average appreciation holding at around 7 or 8 percent are making price reductions, but not in fire-sale mode.

Even if sellers aren’t falling over themselves to unload their property at any cost, the market is as robust as ever and as balanced as it has been in some time.

The most recent Portland State University Center for Real Estate quarterly report comments on the health of the local market:

To summarize, Portland defies the national trend with continued modest appreciation. Although appreciation is much slower then the double digits experienced last year, Portland remains healthy compared to the national housing market. While there were some warning signs during the first quarter of 2007, including increasing days on market and declining number of transactions, the area rebounded in the second quarter. The median price of existing homes increased, the number of transactions increased, and days on market fell—all indicating a recovery. But, how long will it last?

Local homeowners have been relatively shielded from defaults, too. In fact, Oregon is reported to have the nation’s 2nd lowest foreclosure rate (of 0.5 percent) in the 2nd quarter of 2007.

With the good news locally, I expect a bump in activity through the early fall, siphoning off some inventory and perhaps alleviating some fear brought on by national housing anxieties. If there is a segment of the market that will on the sidelines, it will be first-time buyers with less-than-adequate credit.

P.S. By the way, if you haven’t already, lock your mortgage rate today, according to the pros.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, homes, housing, mortgage, rates, buyers, PSU

Photo by woooooo, used under Creative Commons license.

3 comments September 7th, 2007

Portland Condo Market Update - August 2007

It’s no big surprise that the Portland area condo market has further softened since my last review back in April.

New listings are up, but the average list price is down. The one factor that held relatively steady was the average floorplan size, meaning the average list price per square foot is down about $15/sq. ft. since April.

As of August 25, there were 3,675 active condo/attached home listings throughout the Portland metro area. The average list price is $333,332 for 1,336 square feet ($250 per sq. ft.). In the April snapshot, the area had 2,458 listings at an average 1,361 sq. ft. and list price of $360,522.

Since some readers are more interested in pure condo ownership than rowhouse/townhome construction (which are more typical of suburban neighborhoods), I first rolled up condos and attached homes in the same analysis, then broke them out separately. The tables below show 1) Condos and Attached Homes together; 2) Condos only; and 3) Attached Homes only.

Table 1: Condos & Attached Homes

Table2: Condos only

Table3: Attached Homes only

Please note, this is just a snapshot as of August 25, 2007 of the active listings in the local multiple listing service. It may not include inventory sold by owner or through developer sales groups. Every effort has been taken to ensure accuracy (including use of pivot tables!), but is not guaranteed.

Also, for readers looking specifically at the downtown Portland condo market, check back later this week for a more in-depth analysis of sales and active listings.

Technorati Tags: Portland, Oregon, condos, condominiums, townhomes, rowhouses, real estate, averages, listings, prices

2 comments August 27th, 2007