This year, the issue seems a little lighter, but they report on the general market health, identify seven housing trends, rate a few top neighborhoods based on price (low and high), short-term and long-term appreciation, and pace of sales. The article concludes with their Neighborhoods by the Numbers section — measuring real estate factors, school performance, population mix, crime stats, parks, and commute times.

Trends they note:

• Fewer Californian immigrants
• Homes as personal brands
• The attraction of living in the suburbs/exurbs
• Opportunities in a soft condo market
• A growing, aging population in Portland
• Rising rents — 10 to 15%
• Remodeling ‘green’

Last year, they posted the ‘Neighborhoods by the Numbers’ section on their website, but I don’t find it yet this year.

Out of respect for their copyright, I won’t post a copy of the articles here, but since it’s off the newsstand, you can email me and I’ll send it along.

And it weighs in at a beefy 79 pages.

The residential real estate section is consistent with what you’ve read here and in other local outlets — sales down, pricing flat for Q1.

As for the rest, I haven’t absorbed it yet, but you may find interest in the weighty sections by PSU faculty and consultants about Portland’s crossings (bridges), “center” vs. “corridor” growth strategies, Streetcar research, and other land use, urban development and commercial real estate topics.

Full report here.

Except, perhaps, active buyers looking to time the market to their advantage.

As of this afternoon, April 2008 unit sales were running at about 57% of April 2007’s result. By the time all the April lingering data gets entered over the next few days, the result will likely just reach the 60% mark. (Pending sales for April 2008 are down 38% from last years monthly total, so May’s sales result will look familiar.)

And it seems the doldrums are starting to have their effect on sales pricing (finally). The average sale price for the current results is $324,300 (vs. $336,700 last month and $338,200 last April). The median will come in around $275,000 (vs. $286,500 last month and $285,000 last April).

Inventory is growing, with active listings up 1,000 from the beginning of April to start May with 16,400 homes.

The numbers will likely change a little once RMLS scrubs the data, but you get the idea.

Photo by jekkyl, used under Creative Commons license.

[Actual listing somewhere in California, click on the image for the full impact.]

Complete plagiarism on my part. Credit to Jay Thompson, the Phoenix Real Estate Guy and contributor to AgentGenius. I couldn’t help myself.

The survey, which includes data from the Mortgage Brokers Association, reports that as of early 2008, 32% of homeowners across the U.S. have their homes paid in full, and of those with a home loan, 53% are in a prime mortgage and the balance are in a sub-prime (9%) or FHA/VA loan (6%).

Here’s a look at how Oregon compares to the nation and California by mortgage type:

Does this mean Oregon will continue to outperform national and Californian averages? Maybe, maybe not. But certainly the mix of mortgage products is encouraging.

Source: 2008 State-by-State “Mortgage Market Conditions” Reports, NAR.

Photo by denn, used under Creative Commons license.

Their net result? The average home sale in Oregon drives an additional $81,600 in state income (presumably most of which is taxable). Here’s their numbers for Oregon (based on 2006 results):

Real Estate’s Economic Contribution in Oregon
The Real Estate Industry accounted for $27,675 million or 18.3% of the Gross State Product in 2006.

Economic Contributions are derived from:

• Home construction
• Real estate brokerage
• Mortgage lending
• Title insurance
• Rental and Leasing
• Home appraisal
• Moving truck service
• Other related activities

When a Home is Sold in Oregon…
Income generated from real estate related industries is: $25,776
Additional expenditure on consumer items such as on furniture, appliances, and paint service is: $5,171

When a Home is Sold in Oregon…
It generates an economic multiplier impact. There is a greater spending at restaurants, sports games, and charity events. The size of this “multiplier” effect is estimated to be: $14,854

Additional home sales induce additional home production. Typically one new home is constructed for every 8 existing home sales. Therefore, for each existing home sale, 1/8 of new home value is added to the economy which is estimate in the state to be: $35,800

The Total Economic Impact of a Typical Home Sale in Oregon
Median Priced Home in Oregon: $286,400
Total Income Derived from a Sale of a Home: $81,601

So, while the market may be going through a necessary correction period, a prolonged slump will create a real drag on the state’s economy.

Data: NAR Research Department, April 2008.

A slower rate of sales plus a consistent pace of new listings entering the market means more inventory. April started with 15,412 active properties in the multiple listing service. It’s taking on average 83 days to sell a home in the Portland market (vs. 65 in March 2007). A couple higher-priced markets (Lake Oswego/West Linn and NW Washington County) are now over 100 days on average.

You would expect pricing to be affected by higher inventories and longer sales cycle, and it has…although not on par with other national markets. Comparing year-to-year, March’s average sale price of $336,700 is virtually the same as last year (336,300). Median prices are even, too ($286,500 vs. $286,200).

Below are the year-to-date results through March 2008 for average and median sale prices, appreciation, and time on market (or DOM*), sorted by average sale price. (Remember, the appreciation numbers are a 12-month rollup compared to the previous 12 months and may not reflect recent months’ price declines.)

Source: RMLS, April 2008.

Appreciation percentages are based on a comparison of average price from the last 12 months (04/01/07 - 03/31/08) with 12 months before (04/01/06 - 03/31/07).

* Note: DOM or days on market may exhibit reporting inconsistencies and should be used to analyze trends only.

This time, it’s not by a single builder, but several builders, agents, and owners. On May 4, 2008, over 60 pre-owned homes and new construction will go on the auction block, in an event put on by The Taylor Group, a local real estate broker. They’ve created a website, www.properties2auction.com, designed for this auction, and as a platform ostensibly for more local (and not-so-local) auctions.

In the May 8 round, a mix of townhomes, general single family homes, and luxury properties for bid are located in Portland, Lake Oswego, Beaverton, Tigard, Gresham, Wilsonville, Vancouver WA, Sunriver, Bend, and on the coast. I saw a Street of Dreams home or two on the list. It appears several smaller builders are looking to clear the books of stale inventory, like Buena Vista did earlier.

Similar to the Buena Vista auctions, buyers will need a $5,000 cashier’s check for a bidder’s paddle, enough funds for a 3% earnest money on a winning bid, and a healthy stomach for risk to participate. Inspections and due diligence must happen prior to the auction, and each property offers several times for such inspection.

The live auction takes place at the Hilton Hotel at noon on May 8. Buyer and Seller agents can participate in this and future auctions. More information on the FAQ.

Tims interviewed a homebuilder, supplier, remodeler, homeseller, and real estate agent to gauge how each sector is adapting to a slower housing market.

Here is the text, in case the link goes away:

Trying to adapt to the new housing market
A builder, a Realtor, a seller, a remodeler and a supplier discuss their strategies
Thursday, April 10, 2008
DANA TIMS
The Oregonian Staff

Until recently, a vibrant housing market provided many of the jobs and much of the income that stoked the southwest suburbs’ economy for the past half-decade.

Much has happened in the past year to erase the double-digit profits that home sellers were taking for granted.

The number of houses on the market, for instance, has increased almost sixfold since 2006, giving buyers the upper hand.

Houses are lingering on the market far longer than they did two or three years ago. The multiple offers and bidding wars common among prospective buyers as recently as 2005 have been replaced by sellers trimming asking prices 10 percent and more to keep buyers from shopping elsewhere.

Some areas are feeling the pinch more than others. Below are brief profiles of five people and their accompanying market sectors. Each is trying to find new strategies for coping with the downturn.

The Realtor
Ron Ares jumped from his job as marketing director for a high-tech company to a family-run real estate business in West Linn three years ago. That may as well have been a lifetime ago.

“Inventories were half of what they are now, full-price offers were commonplace and if buyers didn’t have all their ducks in a row, they were likely to miss out on houses that were selling the same day they came on the market,” said Ares, a Tigard resident who specializes in the southwest suburbs. “It was one open house, one advertisement and ‘Katie bar the door.’ ”

The market hit its peak, in terms of median sales prices and number of houses sold, last July or August, Ares said.

Ultimately, he expects that this year will see a considerable dip in closed sales when compared with 2007, but the drop will be less than the 35 percent chalked up so far this year.

Successful agents — that is, those not among the nearly 1,100 Portland-area Realtors who decided not to renew their licenses at the beginning of 2008 — need to pay close attention to the market and be willing to expand their skills sets, he said.

Some agents, for instance, are focusing on so-called short sales, where the balance owed on the mortgage is more than a house’s market value. The endeavor involves negotiating with lenders, who may be willing to settle for less to avoid foreclosing.

In Ares’ case, he is working only with longtime lenders who have endured down cycles before and know how to source solid loans.

“What I’m telling clients is, if you need to sell and don’t want to get stuck, look at what the peak pricing was and take 5 percent off the asking price,” Ares said. “Otherwise, they’ll just be chasing the market down.”

Read the full interview for how the other interviewees are coping with a slower real estate market.

Sales
Compared to March 2007, residential sales are down 39%, continuing the 2008 trend of being 30-40% off last year’s monthly pace.

Average / Median Price
Despite the slow sales performance, pricing is up (!) ever-so-slightly up from March 2007. Average price was $337,200 vs. $336,300 (March 2007). The median is up $1,000 from March 2007 ($287,000 vs. $286,000). Note, however, that the average sale price in March is down about 2% from February’s result.

Pending Sales
Perhaps the bright spot, pending sales (homes under contract) are roughly equal to this time last year (within 100 units) at 2,960 pending. AMENDED: Like sold inventory, pending sales are actually down about 40% from March 2007–RMLS contacted me regarding a difference in reporting methodology.

Inventory
Around 15,700 homes are now being offered, somewhere around 9.5 months at the current pace of sales. March 2007 showed just 10,577 homes.

Market area data available next week.

Photo courtesy of draggin, used under Creative Commons license.